Catastrophic weather is becoming more frequent and more costly, and the worst is yet to come. That’s the opinion of Munich Re geographer Thomas Loster, who has warned the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) that the global insurance industry could soon face a year with more than $US1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in claims.

His modelling – produced on behalf of the UNEP Climate Change Working Group – shows losses from windstorm, storm surge, drought, flood and other extreme weather are doubling every 12 years.

Insurers can also expect disasters to “cluster”, with high-intensity damage occurring within unexpectedly short periods. Dr Loster says a peak year is likely before 2040.

“The possibility of a $US1 trillion loss year is one scenario out of many, but whatever the precise figures the losses are already large and set to increase,” he told a delegation in Kenya.

“Since so much development is taking place in coastal zones, the figure may arrive considerably before 2040.”

It’s scary stuff, and it’s supposed to be. But there are some bright spots on the horizon. Dr Loster’s report notes that promising initiatives are under way. These include crop-protection funds and small-business contingencies for disadvantaged countries.

Still, there’s plenty more to do – for the UN and insurers. UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner says climate change is a wide-ranging issue that touches on every facet of economic and development life.

The finance, insurance and reinsurance industries will play an important part in developed and developing nations.