The forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “slightly below normal” based on current modelling, according to forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

Cyclone activity is likely to be about 20% below 1950-2015 long-term normal levels, and about 15% below 2006-15 normal readings.

“The TSR April forecast update reinforces the TSR extended range forecast and continues to anticipate Atlantic hurricane activity [this year] will be slightly below-norm,” the group says.

“However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the… hurricane season.”

TSR comprises experts in meteorology and climate and statisticians from University College London and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.