Australia’s severe bushfire losses will push local reinsurance rates up more than 10% in the January renewals, according to Hannover Re.

The reinsurer has tipped broadly stable non-life rates in most other parts of the world in a forecast released last week.

Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter has also warned that while the effects of the global financial crisis have generally been mitigated, an increase in corporate insolvency claims could impact the market as the January renewals draw nearer.

It says inflationary trends – particularly in Western Europe – also warrant close attention, especially for long-tail insurance programs.

Credit ratings agencies have produced mixed reports on the global reinsurance industry, with Moody’s and Fitch Ratings downgrading outlooks to negative from stable on concerns about depleted capital levels in a major natural catastrophe scenario.

Those views are countered by the relatively upbeat forecasts produced by Standard and Poor’s and AM Best.