Atlantic storm predictions up
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is projected to be above the 50-year average in 2007 as forecasters up their predictions from an earlier report.
But the cause is unlikely to be global warming, according to Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. Its latest report predicts a “very active” season following a quick end to the El Niño weather phenomenon.
There are now 17 named storms expected this year, up from the department’s prediction of 14 in December. Scientists also say nine hurricanes are likely this year (three more than the 50-year average) compared with the predicted seven.
The probability of at least one hurricane greater than a category 4 making landfall along the US coast is now 74%, compared with the average 52%.
Report authors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray say historical data does not indicate a link between increased storm activity and global warming.
“Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s seven tropical cyclone basins, except for the Atlantic over the past 12 years.”
But the cause is unlikely to be global warming, according to Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. Its latest report predicts a “very active” season following a quick end to the El Niño weather phenomenon.
There are now 17 named storms expected this year, up from the department’s prediction of 14 in December. Scientists also say nine hurricanes are likely this year (three more than the 50-year average) compared with the predicted seven.
The probability of at least one hurricane greater than a category 4 making landfall along the US coast is now 74%, compared with the average 52%.
Report authors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray say historical data does not indicate a link between increased storm activity and global warming.
“Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s seven tropical cyclone basins, except for the Atlantic over the past 12 years.”