A near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is likely this year, while the eastern and central Pacific regions have a high chance of above-normal activity, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says.

The Atlantic may see 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and possibly 2-4 major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher in the season that started on Saturday and extends to November 30.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Centre expects a 40% chance of a near-normal season and 30% chances of above and below normal seasons.

“Overall, this year’s outlook reflects competing climate factors,” Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Gerry Bell says.

El Nino impacts are expected to help suppress activity in the region, while tropical Atlantic surface temperatures and west African monsoon flows increase the risks.

Last year extensive damage was caused when hurricanes Florence and Michael crossed the coastline. Michael struck Florida as a Category 5 hurricane, according to detailed analysis published this year.

Dr Bell says 80 million people in the US live in areas that could be affected by a hurricane. Only “a fraction” of those live along the coast, with inland flooding a major risk, he says.

In the eastern and central Pacific regions there is a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 20% chance of near-normal activity and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the eastern region that equates to 15-22 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-8 major hurricanes.

The central region, which includes Hawaii, could see 5-8 tropical cyclones.