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Arab Spring heightens political risk

A wave of civil uprisings across the Middle East and Southeast Asia has raised the global level of political risk, according to the latest report from Aon Risk Solutions.

Just three countries received a downgraded risk assessment, while 21 nations across the Middle East, Africa, South America, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia were upgraded.

While no members of the European Union were designated a political risk, Croatia’s assessment was upgraded to “medium” ahead of its entry into EU membership.

Aon says the Eurozone debt crisis remains a “significant risk”, one that extended to regions dependent economically or otherwise on the region.

The annual survey of 167 countries measures risk across six categories: exchange transfer, legal and regulatory, political interference, political violence, sovereign default and supply chain disruption.

Sixteen countries – mostly in the Middle East and central Africa – were given the highest level of risk.

Aon Risk Solutions VP Roger Schwartz says the Arab Spring protests and resultant political uncertainty are the key features in this year’s report.

Five elections across the Middle East and 18 in Africa are scheduled to take place this year.

“The uprisings and protests remain a key concern in 2012 and we see this reflected in rating downgrades of several countries,” Mr Schwartz said.

“This is forcing CEOs and CFOs of businesses with overseas operations in emerging markets to revisit risk management and risk mitigation measures.”