The impacts of the next pandemic may be made worse by covid trends such as anti-vax sentiment, according to a paper from Lloyd’s and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies.

The global economy could lose up to $US41.7 trillion ($65.48 trillion) in the most extreme scanario, they warn. In such a case – involving a highly virulent virus such as a haemorrhagic pathogen that spreads in many countries – global travel would be heavily restricted, with impacts exacerbated by vaccine development struggles.

The paper says even in its least severe scenario, global economic losses could hit $US7.3 trillion ($11.46 trillion).

“Combined with rising ‘anti-vax’ sentiment, ‘lockdown fatigue’, economic instability, the outbreak of a new infectious disease could have more extensive and lasting consequences than we experienced from Covid-19,” the report says.

“Alongside trends such as the rise in vaccine scepticism ... and growing geopolitical tensions, it may be more challenging in future to fight an infectious disease through global vaccination programs, assuming a vaccine can be developed.”

It says a “protracted pandemic” could also lead to civil unrest.

“The aftershock of the pandemic could last long after restrictions ease, delaying the return to pre-pandemic normality for several years due to inflation, persistent unemployment and reduced consumer spending.”

Lloyd’s corporate affairs director Rebekah Clement said: “As well as paying claims, insurers can support with advice on proactive measures to lessen the impact of potential crisis and can mobilise resources and expertise to support rapid emergency response and containment efforts.”

See the paper here.