The Atlantic hurricane season this year may feature above-normal activity, based on sea surface temperatures and conditions, Colorado State University (CSU) researchers say in an extended range forecast released this month.

A La Nina is fading but the odds of a significant El Nino seem unlikely, temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic were near average earlier this month, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures were warmer than normal.

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental US coastline and in the Caribbean,” the forecast says.

A total of 9 hurricanes are forecast, which compares to the seasonal average of 7.2 between 1991 to 2020, while the number of named storms is estimated at 19 compared to an average 14.4. The number of major hurricanes is estimated at 4.

CSU meteorology professor and Insurance Information Institute non-residential scholar Phil Klotzbach also told a recent hurricane conference that the Saffir-Simpson wind scale used to measure storm strength is not an ideal predictor of damage and barometric pressure should be used instead.

Mr Klotzbach says minimum sea level pressure is a better predictor of the scope of a storm’s damage and can be more accurately measured in real time. Researchers say pressure is largely responsible for storm surge.

“Wind hasn’t worked recently,” Mr Klotzbach said. “It’s not bad, but pressure actually does [predict] better.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.