An active forecast Atlantic hurricane season threatens to erode profitability for global insurers already beset by a surge in natural catastrophes during the first quarter.

In a pre-season outlook report, expert forecasting body Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has predicted a total of 16 tropical storms with eight hurricanes including four severe events.

Five tropical storms are expected to make landfall on the US, including two hurricanes.

In an average hurricane season, around 10 storms develop in the Atlantic, including three intense storms among a total of six hurricanes.

“An active Atlantic hurricane season could make 2010 one of the most costly years for natural catastrophes on record,” TSR director Mark Saunders told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agrees with the TSR findings. Its National Weather Service Climate Prediction is forecasting three to seven hurricanes of category 3 strength or more, with wind speeds of at least 178kmh.

NOAA is predicting up to seven strong hurricanes could make landfall.

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said.

An active forthcoming season is attributed to a range of factors including trade wind speeds and tropospheric wind patterns over the North Atlantic and the US.

“Every main climate indicator points to the 2010 hurricane season being active,” Professor Saunders said. “If La Nina develops during the second half of 2010 the above-norm hurricane levels will be even higher.”

The official Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 until November 30. This year natural catastrophes have cost a record $US16 billion ($19.4 billion) in the first quarter alone, according to reinsurer Willis Re.

TSR is affiliated to University College London and is co-sponsored by reinsurer broker Aon Benfield, insurer RSA and claims specialists Crawford & Company.

Also see ANALYSIS