This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than usual, with above-average probability of major systems making landfall on the US coast and in the Caribbean, according to Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

There could be 18 named storms (compared with an average of 12), nine hurricanes (average 6.5) and four major hurricanes in categories three to five (average two) in the season from June 1 to November 30.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months and it appears the chances of an El Nino event this [northern] summer and autumn are unlikely,” the April forecast’s authors Phil Klotzbach and William Gray say.

The chance of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere on the US coast is put at 72%, compared with an average for the past century of 52%.

The probability of one hitting the east coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 48% (average 31%), while the chance of a Gulf Coast landfall is 47% (average 30%).