… but one hurricane could change the tune
Risk modeller Eqecat has created a new model for analysing the risks to offshore energy platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, and the worst-case scenario results are alarming at best.
It found a Category 5 storm tracking through the gulf could cause enormous losses in terms of property damage and loss of economic activity.
"Property damage alone could exceed $US35 billion ($42.3 billion)," Eqecat President Richard Clinton said. "Losses due to business interruption and reduction in production capacity could add $US30 billion ($36 billion)."
Insured losses are more difficult to quantify. Changing policy conditions after the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season mean they could be in the $US15 billion ($18.14 billion) range.
The new model is considered more accurate because it takes greater account of wave patterns, tidal surge and potential mudslides.
Meanwhile, experts have downgraded their insured loss estimates for Hurricane Felix, which passed through Nicaragua and Honduras last week. The Category 5 storm struck relatively remote areas of the Caribbean coast of both countries, and insurance penetration was low.
Risk analysts Risk Management Solutions says total insured losses are likely to be less than $US200 million ($242 million). Senior Director of Model Management Claire Souch says there is still a need for better risk assessment in Central America.
There are also concerns new storms are forming in the Atlantic Basin, with four expected in September and five from October. Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorological Project expects at least two of these will grow to hurricane strength.
Although this Atlantic hurricane season has had a relatively quiet start, the project expects it to be more active than the 50-year average.