Some experts might be predicting a slowdown in premium rises over the next six months in response to the massive injection of capital into the global market, but there’s more than basic economics at work here. There’s another body of analytical opinion – New York stockbrokers – who believe the market’s sharp shock has to keep going this year before insurers’ balance sheets can regain their long-lost equilibrium.

The New York-based Insurance Information Institute says a poll of the top 13 New York stockbrokers’ analysts found a call for rates in the US to rise another 15% across the board this year. That would be the highest annual premium increase since 1986.

The III took a poll of major New York stockmarket analysts and researchers, who predicted rises of between 8.1% to 18.9%. The average was 14.9%. Last year’s estimate was 9.8%. The III says that would see a rise of the total US premium from about $645 billion to $741 billion.

That still won’t take the combined ratio on to the positive side of the ledger, however. The III says it is expected to average about 108%, compared with the estimated combined ratio for 2001 of 117.7%.