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UN climate report points to dire outlook

Droughts, heatwaves, bushfires and other weather events in Australia are set to worsen in terms of severity and frequency as climate change accelerates, according to the latest United Nations (UN) report released overnight.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report says every region including Australasia is already feeling the adverse effects of man-made carbon pollution and the report projects that in the coming decades climate change will increase in all regions.

For 1.5 degrees of global warming, heatwaves will increase, warm seasons will extend and cold seasons will get shorter. At 2 degrees of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison, whose government has been pressed by the insurance industry to double down on mitigation efforts as a way to address climate change-fuelled weather events, has responded to the report.

He says he will provide an update on what his government aims to achieve in emissions reductions by 2030 ahead of a major international climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland later this year.

Mr Morrison however refused to commit to a target of net zero emissions by 2050.

“I won’t be signing a blank cheque on behalf of Australians to targets without plans,” Mr Morrison said. “Blank cheque commitments you always end up paying for, and you always end up paying in higher taxes.”

The report says land areas in Australia have warmed by about 1.4 degrees between 1910 and last year.

It also says the country’s relative sea level rose at a rate higher than the global average in recent decades while sandy shorelines have retreated in many locations.

The report predicts relative sea level will continue rising in the 21st century and beyond, contributing to increased coastal flooding and shoreline retreat along sandy coasts.

“The science is clear and the risk is real,” Finity Principal Rade Musulin told insuranceNEWS.com.au today.

He says the IPCC report is an “important milestone” that updates the science and finds that human influence is “unequivocal”.

“That will place greater pressure on governments around the world to act,” Mr Musulin said. “The new scenarios will help companies stress test their strategies to manage climate risk, and the additional research on extreme events is welcome.

“As for insurers, the report should not significantly change strategy or pricing in the near term because… clear trends have been observed in extreme weather for some time.”

He says the prudential regulator and the industry are already acting to prepare for climate change.

“The report findings will be incorporated into medium and long term forecasts that will affect insurer planning,” Mr Musulin said.

“Clearly, the report reminds us that to protect consumers from affordability pressure investments in adaptation and ‘future-proofing’ building codes are even more important.”

The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) told insuranceNEWS.com.au today that it "accepts the science of climate change" and welcomes the IPCC report.

"As an industry we are working hard to realise the practical action we can take to drive resilience and protect Australian communities and their assets," a spokeswoman said.

"We are collaborating with every level of government and are working closely with the National Recovery and Resilience Agency and the Australia Climate Services to accelerate and amplify effective risk reduction projects, and we commend their approach and engagement.

"However, we call on all levels of government to make further urgent investment in critical resilience and mitigation projects to protect Australian communities and their assets."

Click here to access the full report and here for the regional fact sheet on Australasia.