Queensland can expect a severe tropical cyclone to cross the coastline on Thursday, possibly between Cairns and Mackay, while parts of the state further south could be affected by later flooding as the weakened system travels over land, the Bureau of Meteorology said today.

The Coral Sea tropical low, which was sitting more than 800 km from Queensland today, is expected to reach cyclone strength in the next 24 hours and start impacting the state on Wednesday. The cyclone, which will be named Kirrily, is forecast to reach category three intensity as it moves south-west.

“The system is likely to approach the Queensland coast, crossing at some point on Thursday between Cairns and Mackay,” Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said.

Currently, the most likely location is just to the south of Townsville, but cyclones can speed up or slow down, and change trajectory slightly as they approach, Ms Bradbury says.

The bureau has issued a tropical cyclone watch for the area from Ayr to St Lawrence, including Mackay and the Whitsunday Islands.

Gales with damaging wind gusts to 120 km/h and heavy to locally intense rainfall may lead to flash flooding from Wednesday morning or later in the day.

After crossing onto land, the system is expected to weaken and reach tropical low intensity by Friday morning, but severe weather impacts may continue.

“Even as the rainfall eases along the coast, we are likely to see widespread flooding impacts following this system moving inland,” Ms Bradbury said. “In fact, the end of the week won’t be the end of the potential rain and flooding.”

Some computer model guidance is indicating the system will “hook back around” towards southeast Queensland through the weekend and into early next week with the potential for further rainfall and flooding, she says.

The cyclone is set to be the second to cross the coast this season, after Jasper swept across Far North Queensland last month.

Most of the flooding associated with Jasper came as heavy rain persisted after it had been downgraded to a tropical low. The Insurance Council of Australia said last week that 7473 claims related to the event had been received.

Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt said today discussions were being held with the Australian Defence Force on assistance that may be required as a result of this week’s cyclone.

“Queensland has a lot of capacity itself, with its SES Services, its police, but we will be there to support them in any way that ends up being needed,” he said.