The Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council has released its Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for autumn, with much of the country facing normal fire risk after above average rainfall.

However, increased fire risk is flagged for parts of WA and the NT. 

“The end of summer does not signal the end of bushfire risk for Australia and communities should be mindful of residual risk in their area,” council CEO Rob Webb said. 

In autumn, maximum and minimum temperatures are “very likely” to be above median averages across almost all of Australia, while rainfall is likely to be below median averages across much of the north, east and southwest. 

“Rainfall in the 24 months ending January has been above average for much of eastern and northern Australia ... this is in strong contrast to the period leading up to and including the 2019-20 southern fire season, which had very dry conditions for much of the previous two years,” the council said. 

Increased fire risk is flagged for southern WA, with above median temperatures and severe rainfall deficiencies expected to persist into autumn. Parts of WA recorded the lowest November to January rainfall on record, with large areas recording less than 10mm for the period. 

In the NT, autumn is expected to bring dry, hot weather and increased fire risk in areas near Alice Springs, Simpson West, Lasseter and Barkly, with elevated fuel loads and below average soil moisture. 

In SA, the council reports a “minor elevation” in fire danger in the lower Southeast, West Coast, Murraylands and Riverland districts for early to mid-autumn. The long-range forecast is for below average rainfall in areas around the Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent and parts of the northeast, with average rainfall across the remainder of the state. There is a likelihood of above average temperatures. 

In NSW, above average rainfall for many parts and cooler conditions are predicted in autumn, leading to normal fire risk.  

In Victoria, average fire potential is forecast despite the chance of a drier, warmer than usual autumn. However, the council says fires last month, driven by sustained strong wind, are a reminder that even under “normal” seasonal conditions, a single fire event can still be damaging.  

In the ACT, bushfire risk is also assessed as normal. In Tasmania, a normal fire season is expected, though late-season fires are possible and prescribed burning will be delayed until there is more moisture in fuel and the soil. Significant fire weather is likely during early autumn, and there is “still considerable potential for large fires to develop across most of the state”. 

In Queensland, heavy rain in the late summer has reduced bushfire risk, though the autumn forecast is for drier than average conditions in many parts. 

Click here to read the outlook in full.