University of Waikato experts are working on a new model to incorporate natural hazard science into city planning.

“New Zealand has all this amazing knowledge about our natural hazards, but we need to get much better at integrating this into planning for future urban growth,” Iain White, whose project is funded through the EQC Toka Tū Ake University Research Program, said.

The program will invest $NZ4.5 million ($4.17 million) into natural hazard research over the next three years at five New Zealand universities.

Prof White says the new model will simulate how developers, planners, and landowners interact so planners can better understand how policy changes around zoning, natural hazards or climate change affect outcomes.

“We have really good science around climate change and how this might affect hazards, but we need to better understand how our long-term growth plans will intersect with this risk, and how the policy environment shapes developer behaviour.”

Prof White says the new model will enable planners and modellers to look “decades ahead” to see how policy changes could impact urban growth patterns.

EQC says it supports the project as part of its goal to reduce the impact of natural events on home owners.

“The severe weather events in the past year have shown us how much trauma and financial stress could have been avoided with better planning and making the avoidance of natural hazards, or reducing their impacts, a bigger priority,” Principal Advisor for Risk Reduction and Resilience Wendy Saunders said.

Prof White says councils need more tools to limit developments in potential high hazard areas, and often end up in litigation with developers.

“This new model could help avoid litigation by strengthening the evidence base for better long-term decisions.”