Weather patterns could cause an early start to the southern bushfire season while current trends suggest no relief is in store for drought-affected areas, a Bureau of Meteorology outlook says.

El Nino appears unlikely to form in the Pacific Ocean but climate models indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a harbinger of dry conditions.

“Drier and warmer-than-average conditions are likely to continue at least until October and fire potential this season is higher than usual for parts of southern Queensland,” Senior Climatologist Felicity Gamble says.

“The Indian Ocean is the dominant influence on the outlook with climate models favouring a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

“This is typically associated with dry conditions over central and southern Australia during winter and spring and an early start to the southern bushfire season.”

NSW and Queensland are in the midst of the country’s worst ever dry spell, and the weather conditions seen in the first-half have "extended the drought in many areas,” Ms Gamble says.

“With warm and mostly dry conditions continuing in the east and south west, soil moisture remains below average for many key agricultural regions.”

While the southeast region and parts of WA have had timely rains, these were not enough to restore water supplies.

“Mid-winter winter is the time of the year when we normally see southern water storages filling but there has been little change in overall storage levels in the south eastern mainland over the past month,” Ms Gamble said.

“Levels in the northern Murray Darling basin are still at just 7%.”

The rainfall outlook appears dismal based on current readings.

“Streamflow forecasts for July to September suggest low flows are likely to continue for nearly two thirds of locations across Australia,” Ms Gamble said.