Privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene will probably be close to $US6.4 billion ($9.3 billion) following wind, storm surge and inland flooding across nine US states, catastrophe modelling firm Karen Clark & Company says.

Helene crossed the coast in the Big Bend region of Florida on September 26 at category 4 intensity and tracked through southeastern states, bringing historic levels of rainfall and flooding.

“In contrast to a typical category 4 hurricane, most of the damage occurred far from the landfall point, with higher wind damage in Georgia than Florida, more surge damage in Tampa, and the most significant inland flood damage in North Carolina,” Karen Clark & Company said.

Helene came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 225km/h and brought record three-day rainfall to western North Carolina, with several locations reporting more than 500mm. US media have reported that more than 200 people died. 

Economic losses will far exceed insured losses, with standard homeowners’ insurance typically not including flood, and coverage rates low in severely affected areas.

Karen Clark & Company’s insured loss estimate, released on Wednesday, includes private insured damage to residential, commercial and industry properties and vehicles, plus business interruption, but does not include boats, offshore properties or National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) losses. 

Fitch Ratings, in an earlier initial estimate, said insured losses could reach $US5-$US10 billion ($7.3-$14.6 billion).  

“Fewer than 15% of homeowners buying insurance purchase primary flood insurance, with even lower take-up rates away from the coasts with less historical flooding,” it said.

Homeowners who buy cover usually do so through the government-backed NFIP. Mortgage lenders require flood insurance if it is a federally backed mortgage and the homeowner lives in a Federal Emergency Management Agency high-risk flood zone or has received prior agency compensation for damage.

“The expected levels of flooding and storm surges associated with Hurricane Helene may trigger private market reinsurance coverage of the NFIP,” Fitch said.

The hurricane is not likely to affect Fitch’s credit ratings for Florida’s state-owned insurer of last resort, Citizens, or the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.

AM Best associate director David Blades told radio station WBUR insured losses may be a little higher than the ratings agency’s initial estimate of $US5 billion ($7.3 billion), with the event manageable for the insurance industry. 

Guy Carpenter says about 3.4 million people were without power after Helene, across an area from the Florida Panhandle to the Ohio River Valley - the highest peak outage total since Hurricane Irma in 2017.