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Latest Climate Index affirms extreme weather trend

Conditions last spring exhibited “extreme weather” elements, pushing the Australian Actuaries Climate Index to a reading of slightly above 0.6, its highest ever value for the season, according to an update released today by the Actuaries Institute.

The institute says unusually high temperatures and sea levels pushed up the index. With the exception of the Wet Tropics in Queensland, all regions covered by the index recorded severe extreme high temperatures above the average reading for the reference period from 1981-2010.

While the index reading reflects less severe overall conditions than would be seen in summer, it is further confirmation of the ongoing extreme weather trend being experienced in Australia.

The Rangelands North, which stretches across WA, the NT and Queensland, set a spring record for extreme high temperature. Similarly, all regions in the country recorded sea level readings exceeding the average for the reference period.

“The trend in the index is in line with the predictions by many scientists as to what a changing climate could look and feel like,” Actuaries Institute CEO Elayne Grace said.

La Nina peaked at the end of last year but the climate event - which typically brings heavier-than-usual rainfall to Australia - continues to have an impact, the institute says, citing data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

Above-normal rainfall is expected for the rest of this summer, especially in the eastern parts of the country but the bushfire season will be less severe than last year.

The Climate Index was launched in 2018 and calculated by Finity Consulting at the end of each season, using BOM data.

The index shows changes in the frequency, or rate of occurrence, of extreme high and low temperatures, heavy precipitation, dry days, strong winds and changes in sea levels across 12 regions that are climatically similar.

The Actuaries Institute says the index is designed to provide an easy to interpret and valuable metric for actuaries, policy decision-makers and the general public to refer to when monitoring changes in climate.