New research funded by New Zealand’s Earthquake Commission (Toka Tū Ake EQC) aims to save lives in West Coast communities by predicting high-hazard zones where landslide dams could cause major flooding.

Landslide dams form when debris from a landslide blocks a river channel. This creates a large dam that backfills into the upstream valley and eventually bursts.

This “outburst flooding” can have devastating impacts on communities, destroying homes and infrastructure.

After the Kaikoura event in 2016, large numbers of landslides and landslide dams formed. Heavy rainfall can also cause landslide dams and increase the risk of the dam bursting.

Jane McMecking, from the Disaster Risk and Resilience Group at the University of Canterbury, has created a model to assess where landslide dams and outburst flooding might occur on the West Coast as part of her Master of Science thesis.

She hopes her research will save lives in the event of an Alpine Fault earthquake and help councils and local Civil Defence with their evacuation plans.

“The more science we have, the more we understand these hazards and the more we can work with communities and relevant organisations to understand the impacts of potential hazards and improve our resilience,” she said.

“Landslide dams aren’t well known, so I’m hoping this project will bring more awareness.”

The thesis was funded through the Toka Tū Ake EQC University Research Programme, which invests in research and capability building to increase resilience.

Toka Tū Ake EQC Head of Research Dr Natalie Balfour says that this kind of research is essential to understanding the impact of natural hazards on communities.

“We know that secondary events, like flooding after an earthquake, can cause more damage than the actual main event, so it’s important to identify which areas are most at risk,” she said.

“We’re proud to fund this and other University Research Programmes, which are part of the $NZ20 million ($18.23 million) that Toka Tū Ake EQC invests in natural hazard research every year to support local communities so that everyone can be better prepared.”