The chance of La Nina occurring this summer has fallen, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest update.

Just one out of six climate models surveyed suggests sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to exceed the La Nina threshold from next month to January, while another indicates temperatures will top the threshold in December and January only.

“The chance of a La Nina event developing in the coming months has decreased compared to recent outlooks,” says the bureau’s climate driver update, released yesterday.

“If a La Nina were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak ... and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February.”

In the bureau’s previous update on October 1, three of the six climate models predicted sea surface temperatures were likely to exceed the La Nina threshold from this month.

The latest update says some atmospheric indicators such as pressure, cloud and trade wind patterns over the Pacific have been more La Nina-like over the past few weeks, but there is yet to be a consistent or sustained signal.

“The bureau’s model suggests [sea temperatures] are likely to remain within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral range ... throughout the forecast period to February 2025,” the update says.

The bureau will issue its next update on October 29.