While La Nina this summer could lead to significant claims events, they should be “manageable” for general insurers, according to a note from advisory firm Bell Potter.

The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed earlier this year that La Nina thresholds in the Pacific Ocean had been breached, leading to fears of floods such as those which hit Brisbane in 2011 during the last La Nina event.

Bell Potter says that 12 out of the last 18 La Nina events have resulted in “widespread wet conditions”.

But while costs could be “material”, it takes comfort from the fact the event is unlikely to reach the strength of the 2010-2012 La Nina, and that there is no pending switch to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which would likely exacerbate wet conditions.

Catastrophe costs “appear manageable this summer”, the note says, adding that “the next few months should not be as gloomy as initially feared”.

Bell Potter Insurance Analyst TS Lim told insuranceNEWS.com.au that since the last La Nina insurers have also increased their levels of reinsurance protection.

“It’s much stronger now,” he said. “It is expensive but you need a trade-off between the cost and the benefits.”

Bell Potter appreciates that predicting the weather is a dangerous game, with expected patterns not always eventuating.

But it says "the one agreeable fact is that the period between November and April continues to be riskier for the entire sector”.