Communities in Far North Queensland are bracing for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Trevor, with the storm system strengthening as it approaches the coastline.

Meteorologist Adam Morgan says the cyclone has rapidly intensified in the Coral Sea and may reach category four strength before crossing the Cape York Peninsula near Lockhart River late this afternoon.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding is forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology across Far North Queensland today and over the next few days, with a flood watch issued for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama.

“Although Trevor may weaken a little as it moves across the cape and into the Gulf of Carpentaria it will remain a very dangerous system,” Dr Morgan said.

The cyclone is forecast to regain strength as it travels across the Gulf and on current expectations will pass near Groote Eylandt and reach land again along the Northern Territory coast.

“Cyclones in the Gulf are notoriously erratic, so the forecast track and intensity may change a lot between now and then,” Dr Morgan said.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk met today with the Queensland Disaster Management Committee as an “exceptionally busy season” continues.

The cyclone’s path puts it well north of the Townsville region, which was hard hit by torrential rainfall during the last week of January and first week of February. Insurance losses from the event have reached $1.04 billion.

The Bureau of Meteorology also today issued an El Nino alert as the likelihood of an event developing this year increased to about 70%, triple the normal likelihood.

El Nino typically brings drier than average conditions for eastern Australia during the winter-spring period and warmer days across southern regions.

“Most international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain at El Nino levels into winter,” the bureau says.

Australia has just experienced its warmest summer on record, with all areas apart from north Queensland falling short of their seasonal rainfall average.