An ageing population will transform general insurance, with implications for motor, property and liability covers, a report by consultancy Capgemini says.

Demographic transformation is occurring worldwide and senior citizens will outnumber younger people by 2050, excluding a relatively young Africa, according to financial services strategic business unit CEO Kartik Ramakrishnan.

“The ageing population will drive urbanisation and influence evolving consumer preferences; as a result, insurance structures will change across risk, protection and service delivery,” he says.

Capgemini’s 2025 World Property and Casualty Insurance Report says the global dependency ratio is forecast to rise to 26% by 2050 from 16% today, meaning that for every 100 working-age people, there will be 26 seniors to support.

In Australia, the dependency ratio is expected to rise to 39% from 28%.

The report says the “demographic revolution” was once mainly a concern for life insurers but is now transforming the property and casualty landscape, altering home utilisation, mobility patterns, liability exposures and claim frequencies in ways that challenge traditional actuarial models.

“As populations age, insurers must recalibrate underwriting approaches, product design and claims forecasting to address demography-driven changes in insurance fundamentals,” it says.

The report predicts a faster pace of growth for commercial line premiums, which are projected to increase 4.4% annually worldwide, compared with a 3.3% gain for personal lines. 

In Australia, commercial is expected to increase 6.2%, with personal lines rising 4.8%

The proportion of people living in urban areas is expected to reach 68% globally by 2050, with almost half of those over the age of 50. In Australia, the urbanisation rate increases to 91% from 87%.

The report says demographic shifts are intersecting with technological advances and climate change impacts, with 98.5% of the global population to face drought risk, while 80% will be exposed to excessive rainfall. 

Ageing populations increasingly depend on complex technology and infrastructure networks for mobility, home help and daily living, as interconnected systems create interdependencies that amplify risk. 

In motor insurance, the report notes, older consumers drive less frequently, retain vehicles longer and increasingly rely on alternative transport. Urban concentration reduces traditional vehicle ownership while increasing shared mobility solutions.

Ageing populations and smaller family sizes transform property needs, while in liability, workforce ageing increases injury potential and drives automation adoption, creating new exposures.

At the same time, older consumers’ preferences for services over products shift liability risks from manufacturing defects to service delivery failures.

Findings in the report are based on surveys of industry participants and customers around the world – including eight executives and 350 policyholders from Australia – as well as macroeconomic forecasts.

See the report here.

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