A Coral Sea tropical low could develop into a cyclone early next week and affect the Queensland coast, the Bureau of Meteorology warned today.

The low, currently located well off Northern Australia, is expected to strengthen during the weekend, most likely reaching cyclone intensity by Monday.

“Although not certain, there is a significant risk that this system will impact the Queensland coast during next week. A severe impact is possible,” the bureau said this afternoon.

“It is too early to say exactly when or where the system might impact the coast. All communities on the east coast of Queensland are advised to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.”

The bureau sees a moderate, or 40%, chance of a cyclone forming on Sunday morning, and a high 55% chance from late Sunday night through Wednesday.

Far North Queensland is still cleaning up from the flooding that followed Cyclone Jasper in December. The Insurance Council of Australia declared a catastrophe for the event.

Other parts of the state have also been hit by severe storms, which additionally impacted NSW and Victoria over the holiday period, leading to a second catastrophe declaration.

The bureau doesn’t anticipate any threat to WA from Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, which has strengthened slowly to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

“There is large uncertainty in the movement of tropical cyclone Anggrek on the weekend, with the most likely scenario for the system to move towards the west,” the bureau says. “However, if Anggrek does move to the east, then it is likely to be a weak tropical low.”

The bureau says if Anggrek moves further east than forecast gales with damaging winds could develop over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands from as early as late tomorrow morning, with a small risk that the islands may experience destructive wind gusts late Thursday or early Friday.

The Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation has declared a cyclone event in relation to Anggrek, beginning January 15 at 10am (AEST).