The Bureau of Meteorology has firmed its forecast for a cyclone to form in the Coral Sea early next week, with a Queensland coastal impact remaining a possible path for the potentially damaging system.

The latest update on the bureau website says the tropical low will strengthen during the weekend and become a tropical cyclone by Monday.

“The low will initially be slow moving then move on a general southerly track from Sunday to Tuesday. Its movement then becomes uncertain but likely to come towards the coast,” the update says.

“There is a significant risk that this system may impact the Queensland coast from later Tuesday onwards next week. A severe impact is possible.”

Senior Forecaster Felim Hanniffy said on ABC Radio that a lot of the models favour the tropical low intensifying “pretty quickly” during the first parts of next week, and taking a more west or south westerly track towards Queensland initially.

“Where the models do diverge is whether it will move in on the coast or whether it will recurve back out and then move further away over the eastern Coral Sea,” he said.

The bureau estimates a 75% chance of the system being at cyclone strength on Monday night, increasing to an 85% chance from Tuesday.

Far North Queensland is still recovering from flooding related to Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The cyclone crossed the coastline north of Port Douglas in mid December, with torrential rain and flooding following in its wake as it was downgraded to a tropical low.