The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast that Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will form tonight and cross the Queensland coast on Thursday night or early Friday morning at category two intensity.

A warning zone has been declared from Lucinda to Sarina, including Townsville, Mackay, Bowen and the Whitsunday Islands and a watch zone advised for the area from Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers.

The tropical low, which has been developing more slowly than had been expected a few days ago, will be the second cyclone to reach the eastern Australian coast this season after Jasper hit Far North Queensland last month.

“The system is likely to cross the Queensland coast Thursday night between Cardwell and Bowen,” the bureau said in its latest update. “In the longer term, the system is likely to track further inland as a tropical low, bringing heavy to intense rain to parts of the northern interior and western Queensland."

The bureau’s forecast track map shows the system crossing the coast between Ayr and Townsville.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles said the Townsville airport will be closed from midday tomorrow and that Queensland Fire and Emergency Services have already deployed additional resources to the region, including personnel from NSW and Victoria.

“Tropical Cyclone impacts are likely to begin from tonight, particularly in the Whitsunday Islands,” he told a briefing after a Queensland Disaster Management Committee meeting.

“After the cyclone crosses the coast it’s likely to weaken to a tropical low, but have very high levels of rainfall associated with it, and so depending on its path, that rainfall is likely to cause flooding in parts of the state.”

The tropical low was 660 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 570 kilometres northeast of Mackay early this afternoon and was described as slow moving.

Gales with damaging wind gusts to 120 km/h are likely to develop about the Whitsunday Islands tonight and extend to mainland communities between Ayr and Sarina during tomorrow morning, extending during the day to communities between Ayr and Lucinda, including Townsville.

Insurers are preparing for impacts from the expected cyclone, including after it’s downgraded to a low.

“As we saw with Jasper, the severity of the system was realised after the event due to the heavy rainfall and flooding which caused significant damage, and it’s possible this could also be the case with Cyclone Kirrily,” Suncorp CEO Consumer Insurance Lisa Harrison said.

“We are closely monitoring the situation and have teams right across the country on standby to respond. Once it is safe to do so we will be on the ground to support our customers.”