Tropical Cyclone Jasper is expected to strengthen over the next few days and could affect the Queensland coast between Mackay and Cooktown early next week, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Jasper, which reached category two intensity today after forming over the Solomon Sea last night, is the first cyclone in the Australian area of responsibility this season.

“Jasper is forecast to gradually move on a general south westerly track towards the Queensland coast early next week,” the bureau says. “At this stage the highest risk of a cyclone impact is the region north of Mackay.”

The cyclone is expected to track south-southwest into the Coral Sea and reach category four intensity by Friday. Development of a category five cyclone can’t be ruled out.

Weakening may occur on the weekend, while some models indicate there might be an intensification phase if the system approaches the north Queensland coast next week. Potential scenarios also include that Jasper remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days as a slow-moving system.

In October, the out-of-season Tropical Cyclone Lola was named by the Fiji Meteorological Service, but the system remained well away from eastern Australia.

Large insurers offering personal, strata and small business property cover in cyclone-prone regions have been joining the Federal Government’s Cyclone Reinsurance Pool ahead of an end-of-year deadline. Smaller insurers have an additional 12 months.

Under the arrangements, if the bureau observes that a cyclone exists, and is likely to affect any part of Australia, it must within 24 hours notify the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ARPC), which then declares an event.

The ARPC-administered reinsurance pool will cover claims for cyclone and related flood damage arising from the start of an event until 48 hours after the cyclone ends.

Last season the ARPC made declarations for cyclones Darian, Ellie, Gabrielle and Ilsa, but the scheme has yet to receive a large number of claims from any event.

Gabrielle, which affected Norfolk Island before causing extensive damage in New Zealand, was the first cyclone where ARPC had active insurer customers. Cyclone Ilsa missed major population centres when it crossed the WA coast in April at Category 5 strength and no pool losses were incurred.