A tropical low northwest of Darwin is expected to reach cyclone strength at the weekend and could bring heavy rain and strong wind to the Kimberley coast, while the Bureau of Meteorology is also monitoring conditions near the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low is expected to move southwest into the Timor Sea and then into waters north of the Kimberley.

A track map shows it becoming a cyclone tomorrow and reaching category 2 intensity by Sunday evening, while remaining offshore. 

A cyclone watch was issued today for the region from Cockatoo Island to the Berkeley River mouth, with the potential for heavy rain at the weekend. 

A tropical low may also form in the eastern Arafura Sea or the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday or Wednesday. 

“If it stays over water, it may gradually develop, and it is a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Wednesday,” the bureau says. 

The Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation has this year issued declarations for four cyclones, including Sean, Zelia and Dianne, which affected WA. Alfred, which caused damage in Queensland and northern NSW last month, is expected to be the pool’s costliest event since its 2022 launch. 

The Australian cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30.