The Bureau of Meteorology says an Indian Ocean climate driver that brings rain to parts of southern Australia is set to develop this year and may already have been responsible for some recent wetter weather.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is declared when there have been at least eight weeks of readings below a certain threshold. It is one of the climate drivers watched as an indicator of adverse weather conditions that can trigger an increase in insurance claims.

The bureau says this week’s reading was slightly above the threshold, but it was below the key levels for the previous six weeks.

“Most climate models surveyed by the bureau predict the IOD to return to below the negative IOD threshold, with a negative IOD event likely for the second half of the southern hemisphere winter and into spring,” the bureau said.

“It is likely some of the wetter weather seen during June may have been a result of the developing negative IOD event, while the drier weather for parts of southern WA and western Tasmania may have been influenced by the positive SAM (Southern Annular Mode).”

Recent wet weather has included the flooding and strong winds that particularly affected parts of Gippsland and the Dandenongs, causing the Insurance Council of Australia to declare a catastrophe.

The bureau says the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators within the neutral range.