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Bushfire outlook: ‘active season’ looms as dry, warm spell persists

Unusually warm and dry conditions since the start of the year have worsened the outlook for the upcoming bushfire season, according to an update released today.

An above normal fire potential is in store for the east coast of the country from Queensland through to NSW, Victoria as well as parts of SA and Tasmania, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre’s (CRC) latest seasonal report predicts.

The conditions have already forced NSW to bring forward by two months the drought-hit state’s bushfire danger period. The season normally starts in October but kicked off this month after some significant fires on July.

The CRC report says the southern half of the country experienced its driest January-July period on record.

Rainfall in the first seven months of the year has been below to very much below average over large portions of the country.

Areas of above average rainfall were confined to central Queensland, extending to the coast.

“The year to date has been unusually warm and dry for large parts Australia,” the CRC update says.

 “The 2019/20 fire season has the potential to be an active season across Australia, following on from a very warm and dry start to the year.

 “As might be expected, given the broad climatic factors, an early start to the fire season has been declared in many areas across eastern Australia. The dry landscape means that any warm and windy conditions are likely to see elevated fire risk.”

 The update says above normal fire potential is expected in forested areas along the Queensland coast south of Rockhampton down to the NSW border, for woodland and grass fuels, inland areas in the south, and a small area west of Mackay.

Although this was flagged in the previous update, the hot and dry conditions have since parched the landscape even more.

In NSW, there is huge concern for the potential of an above normal fire season in forested areas on and east of the Great Diving Range.

Widespread significant soil moisture deficit has sparked an early start to the fire gander period for many local government areas in the state.

The coastal and foothill forests of Victoria’s East Gippsland remain at risk from above normal bushfire activity, and the danger extends into West Gippsland and the Great Diving Range.

The ACT faces above normal bushfire risk.

Areas of WA also facing above normal fire danger include the coastal region of Pilbara, parts of the Swan Coastal Plain, Avon Wheatbelt and Mallee.