The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted an average cyclone season for Australia but warns climate change will bring more powerful storms.

The severe weather forecast covering this month through to April anticipates a near-historical-average season, which would mean about four cyclones across the eastern coast and about seven in western regions.

Under current neutral climate conditions, the first cyclone is expected in late December.  

“Based on historical patterns alone, a near-average number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region could be expected this season, with a higher proportion likely to be more severe,” the bureau’s national community information manager Andrea Peace said.  

Ms Peace says climate change factors such as warmer ocean temperatures are likely to result in stronger storms, and she urges at-risk communities to be prepared. 

“Any tropical cyclone can be dangerous, and it only takes one to significantly impact communities. Last year we had eight tropical cyclones across northern Australia waters. Four crossed our coast, bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flooding.”  

Coastal communities have been warned of storm surges, even when a system does not make landfall, as elevated sea levels contribute to higher risk.  

The bureau says the wet weather season will also produce a high thunderstorm risk in northern NSW, southeast Queensland and parts of inland WA.  

The forecast also notes warnings from fire authorities about increased risks in parts of Queensland, NT, western Victoria and southeast SA throughout spring.  

“[Fire authorities] also advise a potential early start to the fire season in parts of SA and Victoria and extending to Tasmania if there are warm and dry conditions leading into summer,” Ms Peace said.