The Bureau of Meteorology has held back from officially declaring El Nino in its most recent Climate Driver Update but says it remains on “alert” with further warming expected in upcoming months.

The Bureau says its El Nino Southern Oscillation outlook has not changed its expectation for warmer and drier conditions across the country for August to October, with central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) continuing to exceed El Nino thresholds. 

“International climate models suggest further warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is likely,” the Bureau said.

“All surveyed models indicate SSTs will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the year.” 

There were expectations El Nino would be declared by the Bureau today following the World Meteorological Organisation’s declaration earlier this month. Similar declarations have also been made by US and Japanese meteorological groups. 

“If the atmosphere responds to this warming, an El Nino event would be expected to develop,” the Bureau said. 

The update notes that “all models” suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop in late winter to early spring, with the Bureau projecting monthly SST anomalies for the region will rise to 2.6°C above average temperatures by October. 

El Nino conditions are expected to bring substantially warmer and drier conditions to much of Australia, bringing a greater risk of drought and bushfires. A positive IOD can exacerbate these impacts.