A Los Angeles-style fire impacting a major Australian city is inevitable given increasing risk factors and the nation needs to be prepared, Natural Hazards Research Australia CEO Andrew Gissing says. 

“We’ve got more and more people living in areas of high bushfire risk and we’ve got worsening fire conditions due to climate change,” Mr Gissing tells insuranceNEWS.com.au. “With the history that Australia has of fires already impacting into its major cities, it’s certainly something that could happen in Australia.” 

Examples of bushfires entering capital city suburbs include the 2003 Canberra bushfires that destroyed almost 500 homes and the 1967 Tasmanian fires that came within two kilometres of the Hobart central business district. Other state capitals extend to bush-covered hills and areas that have become popular places to live. 

Research shows that the frequency and severity of fire weather has risen in recent decades and is expected to continue and fire seasons are becoming longer, Mr Gissing says. 

Strong winds and dry conditions drove the rapid escalation of the Los Angeles fires, which featured significant structure-to structure spread from fires burning deeply into urban areas. 

“That will be something that is researched more and more, and we’ve got an ongoing research project with the University of Tasmania that’s looking at some of that house-to-house wildfire behaviour,” Mr Gissing said. 

Homes built to current bushfire standards may still not withstand the worst catastrophic conditions, and renovations and garden changes can increase risks after buyers take possession, even if a property initially meets required standards, he says. 

“People need to understand what the various features of the building are that make it resilient so they can appropriately maintain it,” he said. 

Mr Gissing says the Los Angeles fires were a “grey rhino” event, rather than a “black swan” event and Australia needs to consider similar threats. The term describes a large, possibly high impact event that is hiding in plain sight, but which may be overlooked. 

Moody’s RMS Event Response estimates insured losses from the Los Angeles wildfires at $US20-$US30 billion ($32-$48 billion) in a January 17 release. 

“This firestorm is the most destructive and multifaceted wildfire event in US history, with unprecedented levels of urban conflagration, however, this was not a ‘black swan’ event given the escalating wildfire risk in recent years,” North America wildfire models director Firash Saleh said. 

The area burned by the fires equates to an area approximately three times the size of Manhattan, New York and the risks are ongoing. 

The Palisades Fire is 56% contained and the Eaton Fire 81% contained, Cal Fire says, while the National Weather Service has warned of “critical to extreme risk of fire weather” for southern California early this week. 

Moody’s RMS Event Response will issue its final insured industry loss estimate after the wildfires are fully contained.