Insurance and reinsurance CEOs tend not to speculate about the future direction of rates without mentioning the US hurricane season.

But almost halfway through the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, not much has been heard yet about category five storms on the US coastline. That’s good or bad news depending on whether you are an insurance buyer or seller.

So far there seven named storms have formed in the Altantic, but Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert are not household names. They have affected local weather conditions in Mexico, the Bahamas, Texas, Haiti, Florida and Bermuda, and caused some localised damage.

But to date not one has made the transition from “named storm” to “hurricane”.

It is the first time since reliable records began in 1851 that none of the first seven storms of the season has attained hurricane strength, and damages from this season’s storms currently sit at less than $US220 million ($209 million) – a far cry from the $US20-30 billion ($19-29 billion) in losses industry experts say will be required to erode industry capital and thereby harden rates on a global scale.

But despite the season’s slow start, forecasters are still predicting above-average activity, with some even upping their activity forecasts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its 2011 season outlook in early August, and in doing so raised the number of expected named storms from its earlier May forecast.

NOAA is now predicting 14 to 19 named storms to form this season (up from 12 to 18 in May). Of those, it believes seven to 10 will develop into hurricanes (compared to six to 10 in May) with three to five reaching category three strength or higher, slightly fewer than its May prediction of three to six.

This compares to the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” says Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

Based on climatic, atmospheric and oceanic conditions and on climate model forecasts, NOAA is now 85% confident that 2011 will be an “above-normal season”, up 20% from its May confidence level.

Weather gurus Philip Klotzbach and William Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science also confirmed their Atlantic hurricane forecasts in early August, and are still forecasting the 2011 season to be “very active”.

Although their forecasts remained unchanged from April and June at 16 named storms, of which nine will develop into hurricanes and five will become major hurricanes, they say that despite the average start to the season there remains a “well above-average” probability of US and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

They say the probability of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the US coastline is 70%.

Florida is at greatest risk of hurricane landfall (69%), followed by Texas (48%) and Louisiana (45%). Mr Klotzbach and Professor Gray also rate Florida as having the highest risk of a major hurricane making landfall (32%). All are above long-term averages.

August to October are the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the US Federal Emergency Management Agency is urging citizens not to be complacent due to the lack of hurricanes so far this year.

It is a warning the industry would do well to heed. With updated predictions of up to 19 named storms to form this season, industry-watchers should be wondering whether Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean or Tammy will end up as the names on everyone’s lips.