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Up, down or flat? The rates circus gets complicated

An Aon risk management benchmarking survey has confirmed what many Australasian clients have already discovered at renewal: premiums are rising.

A survey of 535 company executives found an average premium increase of 6.4% in 2009, above the 1-5% increase forecast in last year’s survey.

The Australasian Risk Management Benchmarking Survey forecast another 3% rise this year.

The results are broadly in line with the JP Morgan Deloitte General Insurance Industry Survey released in February, which found rises happening in both personal lines (8%) and commercial lines (4%).

The Aon survey gives further credence to the claims of insurers QBE and Suncorp, who have been telling the market for some time that they have raised premium rates.

It found increases across the board last year, from 1.1% in public and product liability to 16.9% for professional indemnity, illustrating the effect of the financial downturn on the exposure faced by insurers.

The report would seem at first to contradict the views of Aon CEO Steve Nevett, who last month told insuranceNEWS.com.au that the market is likely to remain a buyers’ market for several more years.

He sticks to his guns in the Aon report, saying the market will remain “relatively flat” this year.

“There will be opportunities for single-digit reductions on some lines of risks, while others, such as public and product liability, are likely to experience an increase of up to 5% resulting in a relatively flat market overall,” he said.

Aon’s market clout – estimated to comprise a 20% market share – also enables the major broker to discounts that clients of other brokers are not seeing.

The report says that this year will at least be less volatile than last year – but with that average forecast premium increase of 3%, rates are still moving in one direction.

And Mr Nevett does concede “the market is firming somewhat”.

That’s understandable, with severe storms in Perth and Melbourne raising tens of thousands of claims for damage to homes, vehicles and commercial properties.

With insured losses set to top $2 billion this week, a modest increase in insurance rates is an obvious outcome.

Aon Corporate Risk Services National GM Paul Venning told insuranceNEWS.com.au market forces are “keeping a lid on things”.

“At the moment there’s very healthy competition in the commercial and corporate market,” he said. “Insurers are competing for new business and are keen to hold onto their existing business, so they are looking to match the market.”

Mr Venning reports “patchy” increases in some commercial risks, such as some mining, manufacturing and construction exposures.

He says the storms in Perth and Melbourne last month are expected to have an impact on personal lines but are unlikely to affect the commercial market.

Of the major players, Aon’s survey finds little change in the “most respected” stakes. QBE is still top dog, followed by Vero, Ace, Chubb, Zurich and Lloyd’s. QBE’s top ranking is the fourth in succession for the local giant.

QBE CEO Australian Operations Terry Ibbotson said the company was imposing an average rate increase of 7% late last year. On the strength of the Aon survey, it would appear to be a case of gain without pain.