Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Risk Map shows an overall increase in risk for the first time in three years.

Risk increased in 18 countries and decreased in 13 – a slight rise, but “nevertheless symptomatic” of wider patterns of instability.

There are other worrying trends.

Western countries remain the safest in the world, but last year was Europe’s most deadly for almost a decade, and for the first time since the map was created in 2007 the number of shootings overtook bombings.

Since the start of last year 52% of attacks in Western countries have been “armed attacks”, compared with 34% bombings.

By contrast, from 2010-15 bombings made up the vast majority of attacks in Western countries at 58%, compared with 30% armed attacks.

Civilians, rather then the state, are increasingly the target.

“The venues of the worst attacks in 2015 were clusters of civilians: mass transportation, bars and restaurants, entertainment venues, hotels and tourist resorts,” the report says.

Terrorists’ preference for firearms was illustrated in the highest-profile attacks against Westerners or Western countries. Last year these included the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris in January, assaults in Paris in November claimed by Islamic State (IS), the killings by IS sympathisers in San Bernardino, California, in December, and IS-claimed attacks in Tunisia against tourists in March and June.

Islamic State is a clear driver of the rising threat – not just in the West but also in north Africa and the Middle East.

It must be remembered that the West represents only 1% of all recorded terrorist attacks worldwide.

IS has entered a new phase of inciting and projecting threats “beyond its immediate operating areas”. Paris and Brussels were examples of this, but the threat extends to all nations.

The report says terrorism has re-emerged as a significant business risk over the past year due to high-profile international attacks targeting tourism-related sectors and crowded public spaces.

The most business-threatening political violence risks continue to emerge from war and sudden changes in government control, such as those occurring through coups d’état.

Henry Wilkinson, Head of Intelligence and Analysis at The Risk Advisory Group, which has collaborated with Aon on the map since 2007, said: “These are less manageable risks and our findings flag several countries where there is heightened probability of both.

“Businesses need to be flexible and robust in how they anticipate and manage risks in the fluid world the map depicts.

“This requires actionable assessments that take both a strategic and a more detailed operational view of the markets in which they seek to thrive.”

In the face of the continuously evolving threat, organisations must consider additional lines of insurance, the report says.

Kidnap and ransom coverage is “a strong fit”, with policies typically including response consultancy, evacuation, advice on media relations, victim and police liaison, post-event counselling and security surveys to identify enhancements following an insured event.

The cyber threat posed by terrorists is also a growing concern.

“The spectrum of potential impacts that fall out from an attack is now broader than ever, presenting increasing challenges for risk managers attempting to stay ahead of the threat,” Aon says.

“A more articulate approach to both insurance and mitigation should be considered to minimise the impact to people, operations and assets.”

Australia’s risk remains unchanged at “low”.

“The terrorism peril is in place following a lone-actor attack at a NSW police station and at least three foiled terrorist plots in the past 12 months,” Aon says.

“These led the Australian authorities to advise that terrorism is a probable national threat.

“Australian police have also conducted highly publicised raids countrywide as part of Operation Appleby, a counterterrorism effort involving federal and state law enforcement.

“There is a minimal risk of civil unrest and armed conflict; therefore no other perils are marked on the county.”

While we may feel isolated from the worst events in Europe and the Middle East, the message to all nations from this report is clear: nobody can afford to be complacent in the face of this rapidly growing and evolving threat.

Increased ratings for this year’s map: Angola, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Ghana, Guyana, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Nepal, Qatar, South Africa, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Most active regions for terrorist attacks last year: Middle East (1114 attacks), south Asia (799), north Africa (491), sub-Saharan Africa (331), Eurasia (298), Latin America (212), Asia-Pacific (188), the West (35).

Most active countries last year: Iraq (845), Afghanistan (312), Pakistan (290), Egypt (257), Turkey (214), Colombia (189), India (170), Nigeria (132), Thailand (131), Palestinian Territories (102).

Top six targeted business sectors last year: Transport (131), retail (115), extractives (87), critical infrastructure (83), financial (29), tourism – primarily hotels and resorts, and civil aviation (25).