Last month the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) predicted a severe bushfire season for much of southern Australia, as the effects of El Nino are combined with a long-term rainfall deficit.

Since that document was released, conditions have deteriorated significantly.

Last month and this month have been extraordinarily warm, and mitigating factors in the Indian Ocean have faded, with a rapidly strengthening positive Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcing the effects of El Nino in the Pacific.

Bushfires have hit Tasmania already – almost unheard of for this time of year – and Victoria’s Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley warns large areas of the state are tinder-dry and ready to burn.

Giving evidence to a recent Senate Estimates Committee hearing, Bureau of Meteorology officials admitted “it doesn’t look good” and the worsening conditions are expected to force the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC into issuing a highly unusual update to its outlook.

The bureau’s Climate Prediction Manager Andrew Watkins told insuranceNEWS.com.au the combination of El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is concerning.

“Some of the worst fire seasons are when you get that combination – it tends to be what dries out southeast Australia the most,” he says.

He says the Ash Wednesday bushfires in February 1983, which cost insurers $1.79 billion in present-day values, are a good example of similar conditions.

“Black Saturday in 2009 does not quite match up, because an El Nino had not yet developed.

“But there had been six weeks of very little rain and at the moment we are looking at a situation where we’ve had very little rain in southeast Australia for four or five weeks.”

Dr Watkins says this month could prove one of the warmest Octobers on record, and it has been dry too.

“We are more than two-thirds of the way through the month but have had less than one-fifth of expected rainfall in many areas.

“We are miles behind, and this comes after a September that was the third-driest on record.”

Bureau Director Rob Vertessy told the Senate Estimates Committee “it is a pretty severe-looking outlook”, and the situation in Tasmania shows what may be in store elsewhere.

“We have already had, I think, three total fire bans in the first half of October, which is something of a record in Tasmania,” he said.

“Temperatures there are running at about four degrees over the long-term average.

“It is more like December conditions than October conditions down there. It is a bit of an example of how this season is shaping up.”

Mr Lapsley told insuranceNEWS.com.au parts of Victoria are at their driest since 2009.

“Farmers say we are four or six weeks ahead of where we should be,” he said. “It is large sections of Victoria that are extremely dry, not just small pockets. In previous years the dry areas have been next to deserts, but this time they are adjacent to large population areas.

“The intensity of the Lancefield fire has also been a concern. We are normally just helping out NSW at this time of year.”

He says none of this bodes well for January and February, considered the worst periods for Victorian fires.

Dr Watkins says El Nino also increases the chance of dry thunderstorms, which were held responsible for igniting the 2003 fires that devastated the ACT.

“I’m not trying to paint a bleak picture, but during El Ninos we do tend to see more of these storms with lightning but no rain,” he said.

“Dry vegetation and lightning are clearly not a good mix.”

With bushfires, nothing is certain, and there is always the possibility the bullet may still be dodged.

Dr Vertessy told senators only “a probabilistic assessment”, not a categorical forecast, can be offered at this stage, and there is still potential for relief.

“A cyclone, for instance, might bring a depression, a low, down into southern Australia,” he said. “It might wet things up in the middle of the worst part of the season. That is the kind of thing we hope for always to mitigate the risk.

“But the set-up at the moment does not look good.”