Last year was Australia’s warmest on record, and we could be about to pay the price for it.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) has published its outlook for the coming fire season in the south of Australia, and it shows “above normal” danger for large parts of the region.

Much of the east coast, from mid-Queensland to Victoria, is marked in red, as is the south of SA all the way to the Nullarbor grasslands.

It’s the same story in the southwest, particularly in the forested areas.

This is the legacy of last year’s exceptional temperatures, which have continued into this year in many areas.

Below-average rainfall has also been a feature in east and southwest Australia over the past two years.

Add to this possible El Nino conditions in the Pacific, and an early and severe fire season is the likely outcome for many parts of the country.

And it’s too late to pray for rain: the underlying dry conditions mean any surface moisture will be quickly dispersed.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC CEO Richard Thornton says forested regions on the west and east coasts have suffered badly from “a prolonged rainfall deficit. This will lead to a much higher likelihood of bad fires in the forested regions.”

Ironically, on the Nullarbor plains the above-normal fire potential stems from the opposite problem – too much rain, which has led to increased grass growth.

“Although they don’t have these big, towering flames you see in the forest fires, [grass fires] are very fast-moving – they can take people by surprise,” Dr Thornton says.

“They can start a lot easier than the forest fires and they change direction much more rapidly, which means people can get caught out by them very easily. So they need to be more vigilant to fire risks in grassland areas.”

And it is not only the areas with above-normal risk that could suffer.

“In a normal fire season, anywhere in Australia will see fires in the landscape at any time, particularly on those days of predicted bad weather,” Dr Thornton says.

“People still need to be vigilant, even if they’re not in an area on our map that is coloured in red. Fires will always be there.”

Australia can expect severe fire seasons to become the new normal as the country starts to feel the heat of climate change.

Bushfire seasons will start earlier and last longer, with benign years becoming the exception.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC outlook says: “The concept of an average or normal fire season becomes less meaningful as historical long-term averages are surpassed by fire seasons that are regularly above average in either duration, area burnt or in the total number of fires. Costs to the community for fire-fighting and damage are already steadily rising.”

Dr Thornton says the insurance industry can help by advocating bushfire awareness and preparation.

“It is important that communities in bushfire-prone areas, including those living on the fringe of capital cities and large rural centres, prepare for the fire season now, before it’s too late,” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

The Insurance Council of Australia agrees this season’s outlook should send a strong warning to communities. It says bushfires have caused billions of dollars of damage and insurance losses of more than $1.5 billion over the past decade.

Last October’s fires in the Blue Mountains destroyed 200 homes, resulting in claims costing $183.4 million.