El Nino a harbinger of drought and bushfire
The next El Nino, currently consolidating in the Pacific, is set to bring a hotter and drier summer to Australia than the one we have just experienced.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, atmospheric indicators driven by warm conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean show patterns typical of a developing El Nino event.
“Pacific Ocean surface temperatures continue to exceed El Nino thresholds,” the bureau said in a report last week. “As a result, cloud patterns, trade winds and rainfall along the equator have all shown signs of responding to the warmer ocean conditions.”
The last month has seen below average rainfall across eastern Australia and particularly dry conditions in Queensland – a typical indication that an El Nino event is imminent.
Also known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the term refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific, leading to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific.
It affects countries across the Pacific Basin, with warmer ocean temperatures, increased cloudiness and weaker winds in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and increased rainfall in South American countries. It has far-reaching consequences around the world.
The Bureau’s National Climate Centre climatologist Robyn Duell told insuranceNEWS.com.au El Nino means dry conditions and low rainfall in eastern and parts of northern Australia in winter and spring, dying off at the end of summer.
“These are parts of Australia that have already been affected by low rainfall and drought,” she said. “So it’s the type of thing that can compound on already dry conditions.”
El Nino events have been recorded in 1997/98, 2002/03 and 2006/07, with 1998 the hottest year on record and the last big El Nino event.
Indications are that this next El Nino event could be as big.
“No two El Ninos are exactly the same,” Ms Duell said. “So it’s really hard to know how strong this particular one will be.”
But she says there is no doubt dry conditions are one of the ingredients that go into bad fire weather.
Catastrophe risk analyst Ryan Crompton, who works with Risk Frontiers at the Natural Hazards Research Centre at Macquarie University, is currently putting El Nino and La Nina data into an insurance perspective.
In 2006, along with John McAneny, he published data that prices past insured losses from natural hazards (as identified by the Insurance Council of Australia) in today’s dollars and conditions.
He is now correlating yearly insured losses to El Nino, La Nina and neutral years to see if there is a link between the losses and the ENSO cycle.
“Some of the preliminary work I have done suggests there is some correlation between some of the hazards and El Nino,” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.
“You’d expect losses from cyclone and flood to increase during La Nina and decrease in El Nino, and bushfire loss should increase in El Nino and decrease during La Nina. This appears to be the case.”
Mr Crompton says nearly all of the bushfires have happened in neutral years or El Nino years. The last bushfire season happened in a neutral year.
What this all suggests is that this summer will be one of the hottest and driest on record.
This means drought, a poor growing season and an even worse bushfire season than we have just experienced – and that one culminated in February’s Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria.
The state’s Department of Sustainability and Environment has confirmed this and the Country Fire Authority agrees.
“The genuine prospect of a season with the greatest potential loss to life and property is now in sight, and as climate indicators strengthen this looks to be an increasing likelihood,” a leaked report tabled by the two organisations said.
Add warm conditions, a dry spring and an even hotter summer to the fuel that is forming in many bush areas of eastern Australia and the predictions for the next fire season seem dire.
Mr Crompton says the other thing that needs to be kept in mind when reading insurance loss statistics is that the ICA database only holds information on insured events – so it doesn’t have data on drought.
“That’s a pretty big hole in terms of the impact for Australia,” he said.
So will insured losses grow this year? Mr Crompton isn’t going to be drawn that easily. He says that right now it’s difficult to predict.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, atmospheric indicators driven by warm conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean show patterns typical of a developing El Nino event.
“Pacific Ocean surface temperatures continue to exceed El Nino thresholds,” the bureau said in a report last week. “As a result, cloud patterns, trade winds and rainfall along the equator have all shown signs of responding to the warmer ocean conditions.”
The last month has seen below average rainfall across eastern Australia and particularly dry conditions in Queensland – a typical indication that an El Nino event is imminent.
Also known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the term refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific, leading to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific.
It affects countries across the Pacific Basin, with warmer ocean temperatures, increased cloudiness and weaker winds in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and increased rainfall in South American countries. It has far-reaching consequences around the world.
The Bureau’s National Climate Centre climatologist Robyn Duell told insuranceNEWS.com.au El Nino means dry conditions and low rainfall in eastern and parts of northern Australia in winter and spring, dying off at the end of summer.
“These are parts of Australia that have already been affected by low rainfall and drought,” she said. “So it’s the type of thing that can compound on already dry conditions.”
El Nino events have been recorded in 1997/98, 2002/03 and 2006/07, with 1998 the hottest year on record and the last big El Nino event.
Indications are that this next El Nino event could be as big.
“No two El Ninos are exactly the same,” Ms Duell said. “So it’s really hard to know how strong this particular one will be.”
But she says there is no doubt dry conditions are one of the ingredients that go into bad fire weather.
Catastrophe risk analyst Ryan Crompton, who works with Risk Frontiers at the Natural Hazards Research Centre at Macquarie University, is currently putting El Nino and La Nina data into an insurance perspective.
In 2006, along with John McAneny, he published data that prices past insured losses from natural hazards (as identified by the Insurance Council of Australia) in today’s dollars and conditions.
He is now correlating yearly insured losses to El Nino, La Nina and neutral years to see if there is a link between the losses and the ENSO cycle.
“Some of the preliminary work I have done suggests there is some correlation between some of the hazards and El Nino,” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.
“You’d expect losses from cyclone and flood to increase during La Nina and decrease in El Nino, and bushfire loss should increase in El Nino and decrease during La Nina. This appears to be the case.”
Mr Crompton says nearly all of the bushfires have happened in neutral years or El Nino years. The last bushfire season happened in a neutral year.
What this all suggests is that this summer will be one of the hottest and driest on record.
This means drought, a poor growing season and an even worse bushfire season than we have just experienced – and that one culminated in February’s Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria.
The state’s Department of Sustainability and Environment has confirmed this and the Country Fire Authority agrees.
“The genuine prospect of a season with the greatest potential loss to life and property is now in sight, and as climate indicators strengthen this looks to be an increasing likelihood,” a leaked report tabled by the two organisations said.
Add warm conditions, a dry spring and an even hotter summer to the fuel that is forming in many bush areas of eastern Australia and the predictions for the next fire season seem dire.
Mr Crompton says the other thing that needs to be kept in mind when reading insurance loss statistics is that the ICA database only holds information on insured events – so it doesn’t have data on drought.
“That’s a pretty big hole in terms of the impact for Australia,” he said.
So will insured losses grow this year? Mr Crompton isn’t going to be drawn that easily. He says that right now it’s difficult to predict.