Swiss Re’s latest study of emerging risks paints a grim picture that wouldn’t be out of place in a dystopian novel.

It warns plant pathogens could threaten rubber trees, digital smart cities and technology may malfunction, food and water could be increasingly compromised and one-size-fits-all regulation could cause chaos for industry.

Thankfully, Swiss Re notes some of its 26 risk themes may never materialise.

But some definitely will, and the earlier the insurance industry adapts to potential problems, the better prepared it will be for exposures and opportunities.

“By sharing our findings we hope to raise awareness for these specific risks,” Head of Group Qualitative Risk Management Philippe Brahin says in the report called SONAR: New Emerging Risk Insights.

“The future is no longer a simple linear extrapolation of the past, but rather is characterised by rapid change and interdependencies. Looking back and extrapolating past experiences into the future will no longer be sufficient to assess tomorrow’s exposure.”

Leading risks for the property sector include threats to smart cities and rubber.

Cities will increasingly rely on interconnected digital infrastructure, raising the chance of multiple failures and long-lasting interruptions, the report says.

“Cascading effects triggered by external shocks or through malfunction of control systems may lead to large loss accumulation.”

Reduced rubber output in Asia, where 90% of the material is produced, is a medium-impact risk in the next three years, and a particular worry for the transport industry because there is no synthetic substitute for aircraft tyres.

“The rubber tree is vulnerable to a specific fungus that causes leaf blight,” Swiss Re says.

“While this pathogen is currently limited to South America, experts are convinced it is only a matter of time until it will spread to Asia.”

In the casualty sector leading risks include concussions in sport and the growing popularity of e-cigarettes, while financial market threats include a eurozone crisis leading to deflation and contagious emerging market crises.

Cloud computing security and digital slander are deemed to have the most cascading effects.

One-size-fits-all regulation is considered a medium risk in the next three years, as policymakers focus on simplicity and comparability, potentially leading to excessive capital requirements and inappropriate settings.

Environmental problems raise the potential for liability claims against soil and water polluters, farmers and food producers, with food and water safety increasingly compromised in many parts of the world.

Car manufacturers and energy companies could also face litigation as air pollution takes its toll on public health, Swiss Re warns.

Low-impact risks include liability claims from the sale of “action cams” on planes, cars, cycles and surfboards, providing extreme footage that could incite risky behaviour.

Problems with 4D printing, the collapse of oceanic ecosystems and issues with technology designed to enhance human intellectual, physical and psychological capacities also loom.

Swiss Re’s report does not cover all emerging risks, excluding areas highlighted in previous editions to focus on fresh issues.

Its analysis involves company experts using a web-based platform to collect emerging risk signals, which are assessed and prioritised in consultation with specialists from various insurance areas.

Last year’s report warned of prolonged power cuts, big data issues, cyber attacks, runaway inflation and surging bond yields, emerging infectious diseases, drug resistance, social unrest, supply chain vulnerability and unforeseen consequences of nanotechnology.

Swiss Re says foresight and knowledge sharing are essential to navigate a future in which change is the only constant.

For every alarming risk, there is an insurance opportunity.

“Possibilities for solutions are vast, and the insurance industry should expand its role of mitigating emerging risks and enabling society to advance further,” Mr Brahin says.