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Australia exposed to political instability: Allianz

A series of destabilising events including the Brexit vote and election of Donald Trump may represent a systemic increase in political risk from which Australia is not immune, Allianz warns.

The global insurance giant says in a new report that such upheavals may either be an accumulation of “political accidents” or an indication of systemic change.

It says underlying trends such as global power shifts, weakening institutions and deepening economic and social divisions suggest the latter is more likely.

It would be wise to start preparing for “a prolonged period of political instability”, the report says.

Allianz GM Corporate Affairs Nicholas Scofield told insuranceNEWS.com.au it is “hard to disagree” with the findings, and there is already ample evidence to back it up in Australia.

“In democracies, populist opinion cannot be ignored, and there is no point dismissing it as somehow second rate,” he said.

“This trend is anti-establishment, anti-institutional and anti-big business, and there is no doubt we are seeing the impact.”

He points to rising support for minor parties and recent government activity, including the levy on banks and reversal of the NSW emergency services levy (ESL) reform.

“Go and ask a big-four bank about this after the budget,” he said. “The justification for the bank levy sent a shiver up the spine of much of the corporate sector. It was really justified on the basis that the budget is in deficit and the banks are making good profits.

“With the [NSW emergency services levy transition], we were 11 months into a 12-month transition period and, in the space of two weeks of talkback radio criticism it was dropped – after the industry had spent tens of millions of dollars.

“We are seeing reversal of policies and a plethora of reviews and inquiries being laid on the financial sector. Banks, and increasingly insurance companies, have become the focus.”

Mr Scofield believes the increased level of political risk is here to stay and insurers must intensify their customer focus.

“There is no question that this is the ‘new normal’ in terms of the political environment,” he told insuranceNEWS.com.au.

“We have to step up to a whole new level where we exceed customer expectations. Just delivering on your promise won’t get you attention in the current world.”