Climate change poses the biggest risk to the world and a failure to adapt to shifting weather patterns could have disastrous consequences, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report for this year.

It is the first time environmental risk has topped the list since the report’s inception in 2006. It is followed by weapons of mass destruction, water crises, large-scale voluntary migration and severe energy price shock.

The report is based on responses from 750 experts and decision-makers in the World Economic Forum’s multi-stakeholder communities, who were asked to assess 29 risks in terms of impact and likelihood over a 10-year period.

Climate change is considered to have the biggest potential to inflict huge damage over the next decade because of its impact in areas such as water resources, the food chain and migration.

Scientists have estimated global warming will raise average surface temperatures this year to one degree above those of the pre-industrial era, and warming of two degrees could damage human wellbeing on a worldwide scale.

“Given these developments, it will therefore be impossible to live without adaptation – but adaptation planning is complicated by the difficulty of predicting not only the expected degree of warming but also the expected pace,” the report says. 

Water management will have to change significantly amid shifting weather patterns, because demand for water is expected to exceed sustainable supply by 40% in 2030.

The pressure to increase farm production to feed a growing population will only add to increased competition for water between agriculture, energy, industries and cities.

More than 60% of the world’s trans-boundary water basins have no co-operative management framework.

“Challenges around water management are already immense. Tensions are likely to grow within countries, especially between rural and urban areas and between poorer and richer areas, and also potentially between jurisdictions,” the report says.