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6 August 2018
The Atlantic hurricane season is tipped to be calmer than last year, when Harvey, Irma and Maria brought devastation to coastal regions.
Colorado State University (CSU) expects nine named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane of at least Category 3 strength between now and November 30. The season so far has seen three named storms and two hurricanes.
Philip Klotzbach, a CSU scientist and non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute, says the below-average forecast is due mainly to Atlantic water temperatures.
“Colder-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic provide less fuel for developing tropical cyclones and tend to be associated with drier and more stable air, which suppresses hurricane formation,” he said.
For the US coastline there is a 35% probability of a major hurricane making landfall, compared with a full-season average of 52%.
CSU also says there is relatively high potential for a weak El Nino to develop in the next several months.
Last season included 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, with six reaching at least Category 3.
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